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November 06, 2004

Rossi v. Gregoire, continued

Timothy Goddard runs some numbers on the still-damn-close Governor's race, where Christine Gregiore is hanging on to a 4000 vote lead, with about 360,000 votes still uncounted.

I ran these numbers and determined that, if each county’s uncounted ballots line up with their counted ones, Gregoire will come out ahead by just under 2,000 votes, triggering an automatic recount.

However, the Rossi camp does not expect that to be the case. The polls were swinging his way in the final days of the campaign, and they anticipate that the absentee ballots mailed in closer to the election will be more favorable. So, I ran some more numbers. Right now, Rossi is pulling in 41.3% of the vote in Seattle’s King County, one of only three counties he lost by more than 10%. If he pulls in 43.3% of the 120,000 ballots left to be counted there, and all other counties maintain their trends, he’ll win by 2,700 votes, no recount needed. In fact, even if he only increases his lead by 0.9%, he’ll pull ahead by 100 votes.

The trend is clearly moving in Rossi’s direction, and as long as he does only slightly better in these late ballots than he has done so far, we’ll have our first Republican governor in 20 years.

Wishful Republican thinking? Hard to say until all the votes are counted -- and quite probably recounted. You can run your own scenarios using Timothy's spreadsheet.

Posted by Jon Stahl on November 6, 2004 at 12:57 PM in Candidate Races | Permalink


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If you or your readers are interested, I've added an updated, more user friendly spreadsheet to the post.

We'd have a much better idea what to expect if we knew where in King County the 110,000 votes are from. If they're from Seattle, Gregoire probably takes it. If they're from Bellevue and/or out-county, Rossi takes it. If they're divided along the same lines as the counted votes, then Rossi probably has a small edge.

Posted by: Timothy | Nov 6, 2004 3:54:55 PM

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