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November 11, 2005

End Game on Bush's Approval: Realignment

Chris Bowers talks about the implications of Bush's falling poll numbers over at mydd.com.  He lists the seven approval polls on Bush so far in November.  The mean is 37.1 approve and 57.7 disapprove, the second lowest approval of any President in 25 years. The lowest was Bush's father in 1992. 

His conclusion is that our goal is not impeachment or resignation.  It is realignment.

Bush's disapproval is so high, and his position as the face of the Republican Party is so assured, that it is now possible to envision a vast national realignment away from the Republican Party based primarily on backlash against Bush-ism (aka, contemporary conservatism). Bush Sr.'s extended period of disapproval at this level led to the Perot and 1994 realignment, which helped us greatly in 1992 but on which we utterly failed to capitalize in 1994. Carter's extended period of disapproval led to the 1980 realignment, which saw Republicans sweep the senate and the White House, as well as the first serious defections of Dixiecrats from the Democratic Party. Johnson's extended struggles from 1966-1968 also led to a realignment in 1968.

Bush's approval is now low enough for a realignment to take place in 2006 and 2008. A realignment is far more important to Democrats and progressives than Bush's impeachment or resignation could ever be. This is a generational event and, considering the timing of previous realignments, 1968, 1980 and 1992-4, the timing also suggests that the opportunity is ripe.

He goes on to say that the realignment will come from the Independents who are already polling far closer to the Democrats than to the Republicans.  He calls it the Indycrat realignment.

This is it. This is our chance--our once in a generation window. If we keep Bush's approval low, results like we saw for Paul Hackett on August 2nd and across the country on November 8th will become the norm. Apart from withdrawal, I'm not even sure we need a major platform adjustment or roll-out. People pretty much already know what we stand for. As long as they grow convinced that Bushism doesn't work, they will come over to our side.

We probably won't get another chance like this for at least another decade, so we have to make it count. There are 1089 days between now and November 4th, 2008, the day of the next Presidential election. Make it happen.

Posted by Lynn Allen on November 11, 2005 at 10:24 PM in National and International Politics | Permalink


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