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March 01, 2006

Republican Reichert's Chances Dying with Bush's Numbers?

Survey USA tracks Bush's poll numbers monthly down to the county levels. A DailyKos diarist, dreaminonempty, corrolates those approval ratings to election results starting with the 2004 elections and tracking through the few special elections since then. With colored maps and everything.

Dreaminonempty finds that there is a good relationship between Bush's current approval in cities and states and his percent vote in Nov 2004.  His current approval rating, averaged across the last three months, is 78% of the percent vote he received in 2004. 

Taking that relationship between Bush's current approval and the 2004 election results, the diarist estimates (plus or minus about 5%) Bush's current approval ratings in every county and legislative district across the US.  This theory tested out in two special elections in OH-2 in August and CA-48 in December, both of which the Republican won but at just about the percentage that this theory would indicate.  The diarist says,

If I were running as a Rubber Stamp Republican, I might be a little worried that I'd have to work hard if Bush's approval ratings were estimated to be 55% or below in my district.  At 50% or less, I'd be nervous.  At 45% or less, I'd be sweating.  And 40% or below, I'd have ulcers.

Here's how it looks:

Of the districts currently in Republican hands (and I'm ignoring the issue of retirements here), we have 32 Republicans with ulcers, another 74 sweaty Republicans, 69 with nerves, and 39 more who might be a little worried.   Yes, that's right: 175 districts currently represented by Republicans have estimated Bush approval levels at or below 50%.

On the other side of the aisle, there are only four - yes, four - Democrats from districts with estimated Bush approval above 50%.

Here are the districts with ulcerous Republicans (from most to least ulcerous): CT-2, IA-2, CT-4, DE-AL, IA-1, IL-10, NH-2, PA-7, CO-7, FL-22, NM-1, NY-25, PA-6, WA-8, CT-5, KY-3, NV-3, NJ-2, OH-15, PA-15, VA-15, FL-10, IA-4, MI-9, MN-1, MN-3, NH-1, NJ-3, NY-23, OH-1, OH-12

Note the inclusion of Washington's 8th CD right up near the top of this list.  Bush's approval numbers in King and Pierce counties are way south of 40%.  Across Western Washington it is 36%.  With a lackluster personality, a 97% voting pattern with Republican leaders and a strong and disciplined opponent, Reichert is in trouble.   

Posted by Lynn Allen on March 1, 2006 at 12:24 PM in National and International Politics | Permalink

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» From the 'Don't Take My Word For It' file... from Upper Left
Kos diarist dreaminonempty looks at the pospects for "Rubber Stamp Republican(s)", finding cause for ulcers in districts where the Bush support numbers have dropped below 30%... [Read More]

Tracked on Mar 1, 2006 8:54:06 PM

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