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September 06, 2006

Burner Up 3 Points Over Reichert

Wow!  Darcy at 49% to Reichert's 46%.  Both DailyKos and MyDD have new poll numbers for a large number of the competitive House races.  Polling was done by Majority Watch, which is a project of RT Strategies and Constiuent Dynamics on August 27-29th and have a MoE of 3.1%.  The polling is done by phone using a voice response system so  they may not have the same accuracy as some of the firms we are more familiar with.  However, in looking over the numbers for other races that have been polled more recently, they look pretty accurate to me. 

This is great news for Darcy at this point in the campaign.  The details have Reichert at 32% strong and 14% weak and Darcy at 31% strong and 18% weak with 5% undecided.  With Reichert's strong name recognition, he's probably got about all he's going to get.  The odds are very good that Darcy will continue to pick up voters as they meet her and learn about her and hear her message.   The poll also had President Bush's approval rating in the 8th at 38% with a 56% disapproval.  That's not going to be good for Reichert either, no matter how much he tries to distance himself from Bush and the Republican leadership.  Can't help that Karl Rove is coming to town to raise money for Reichert this weekend either in terms of that perception.

Polling on voter motivation slightly favors Democrats.  When asked how likely they were to vote on a scale of 1-9, Republicans came back with 8.2, Independents with 8.4 and Democrats with 8.5 likelihood.  That's all pretty high for an off-year election. 

Contact Darcy's campaign to volunteer or contribute money.  Although it took them awhile to take Darcy seriously, I don't think the Republicans are going to roll over and play dead. 

The overall message is pretty good too.  It definitely looks like we are trending Democratic overall, enough so that Chris Bowers in that MyDD post is now calling it for the Democrats to take over the House!

Goldy's Update

David Goldstein has an update to the polling numbers.  He called Bill Broadhead, whom he knows and who happens, unbeknownst to Goldy initially, to run Constituent Dynamics, the company doing the polling in question.  Goldy takes it from here:

Anyway, here’s the inside scoop. Broadhead, of course, vouches for his poll’s methodology, as well as the broader reputation of IVR’s (robo-polls) in general, which he says have proven very accurate in recent years. He emphasized, however, that CD does not rely on the less-expensive (and less-reliable) random-dialing technique, but rather uses the voter rolls in each district to prescreen for frequent voters. They then combine the age and gender data from survey responses with that on the voter rolls to create an automatic match-back between the respondent and a specific household member.

As for the somewhat surprising results that show Burner with an early lead despite having very little paid media and a huge name ID disadvantage, Broadhead sees this as part of a larger trend borne out across all 30 House races surveyed: that the 2006 election is in the process of being nationalized like no other race since 1994. The difference, as Broadhead reads the data, is that unlike 1994, when it was largely angry white men who turned against the Democratic-controlled Congress, the anger in 2006 is more broadly distributed across the electorate.

President Bush is proving widely unpopular amongst 8th CD voters, with his job approval/disapproval rating standing at a dismal 38% to 58%. So rather than this being the typical contest between two competing candidates, Broadhead sees this election shaping up as a referendum on President Bush and the Republican controlled Congress.

“What’s going on in the individual elections, while important,” Broadhead told me, “is not quite as important as what we see when there is not this national overlay.”

Um… that’s “the wave” that everybody keeps talking about.

As Goldy says at the end, "I bet there are some nervous folks over at Reichert headquarters this afternoon."

Posted by Lynn Allen on September 6, 2006 at 01:01 PM in Candidate Races | Permalink

Comments

What, Rove's not going to even have a drink with Mike?

Posted by: mainsailset | Sep 6, 2006 1:49:07 PM

I've already cast my vote for Ms. Burner (at least in the Primary Absentee, that is.

Got a couple of questions, tho! First of all, in mid-September 1994, the Republicans came ou with their Contract on America.

Isn't it about time that the Dems rolled out their nationwide contract now?

Also, is anyone planning on protesting at KKKarl's appearance in Medina next weekend?

Anything organized?

MrBlueSky
Crossroads

Posted by: MrBlueSky | Sep 6, 2006 4:19:31 PM

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