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October 20, 2006

Dan Digs Into the Latest Numbers on Burner-Reichert Race

The lastest SurveyUSA poll has Reichert with a slight edge over Darcy (50-47%) amongst likely voters.  Dan over at On the Road to 2008 digs into the details.  It is very interesting - at least for us wonky types. It also offers some considerable hope.  Although the overall numbers have remained quite consistent, the specifics have changes wildly, meaning the voters are susceptible to persuasion in both directions.  Dan looks at the trends from the Aug. 24th, Sept. 7th and Oct. 18th polls. 

While Burner has only made marginal gains with male voters (+3%), she continues to make strides with women, going from -6% to +9% to +13%, a +19% swing over the three polls. While Republican support of Reichert has little changed (+2%), Burner has solidified her support from Democrats, from 79%-14% in support, to 86%-12%, to 88%-9%, a +14% gain.

In addition Burner has vastly improved her sway with independent voters. She was down -13% in August, -5% in September, and is now up +10%, a +23% swing. Isn't Dave Reichert supposed to be an independent? Guess that independent voters aren't seeing it that way.

Reichert enjoyed 98% support from conservatives in September, up from 85% in August, but that number has lowered to 88%. Meanwhile Burner stays strong with moderates (isn't Dave Reichert supposed to be a moderate too?) a +13% lead and gain since August, and with liberals, gaining +25% from the first poll to the last.

SurveyUSA points out that the affluent voters (making > $80K) have moved toward Reichert in the most recent poll, which given Reichert's attack ads on taxes is not a surprise. Burner also loses ground (-7%) with college educated voters. However, she picks up +8% with the no-college crowd.

This tells me that the campaign needs to micro-target specific voters, all of which this very sharp campaign is likely doing.   That requires volunteers.  I have already called the campaign and given them three days of my time in the next 2.5 weeks.  This is doable folks and necessary if we are going to win.  Oh, and, contribute as well.  As Dan says, "this may be one of the closest races in the country this year, and a critical one in deciding whether Congress will have a change in overall leadership. Your help could make the difference."

Posted by Lynn Allen on October 20, 2006 at 08:33 AM in Candidate Races, Taking Action | Permalink


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