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November 06, 2006

Really Interesting Numbers in the Burner-Reichert Race

The Burner-Reichert race has been a nail-biter, going back and forth for the last couple months, but the latest Survey USA poll to come out today shows them with 49% each and 3% undecided.  MoE is 3.8%.  The previous Survey USA had Burner behind 45% to 51% for Reichert. 

Goldy and Darryl have both noted that early voters are breaking for Burner.    As soon as I saw the numbers, I saw the same thing.  At the time of the poll, taken this last Friday-Sunday, 38% of the respondents had already voted and Darcy was up 54% to 46% amongst those folks.  Darcy was up 8 points when only 25% had voted in the earlier poll as well.   

I'm betting that this is a sign that Darcy will win.  I'm also going way out on a limb and predicting a real wave with some lovely surprises around the country.  Here's why.

Around the country, pollsters say that early voters have voted at a higher rate for Democrats than the polls are telling us they are getting from the general population of voters.  I was mentioning this early voting phenomenon to a couple of people at a party on Sunday.  One guy said, "Well, that's how the Democrats got fooled in 2004, because of faulty polling."  I thought about that for a moment and said, "Aw, yes.  But those polls were exit polls.  They depended on who it is that the person doing the interviewing chose to interview."  (I'm pretty sure this was the consensus about why those exit polls were so inaccurate in 2004). 

This Survey USA poll and others like it are is standard random-sampling polling.  So, those folks who are jazzed about voting and knew whom they wanted to vote for were more likely to vote early.  A higher percentage of those folks were Democrats.  So, the remaining 62% of the voters are going to have to vote in a significant higher percentage for Reichert (Darryl says 5% extra) for Reichert at this point if he is to win.  And, I think some of them are just not going to vote.  They are waiting because they just can't bring themselves to vote for Republicans this year and they can't bring themselves to vote for Democrats.  Plus, throw in some weather.   And some pretty motivated volunteers to get the Democrats out and . . . . .

We're gonna win!  Oh, and Dick Morris says so as well.  He's calling it a GOP Massacre! 

Posted by Lynn Allen on November 6, 2006 at 09:42 PM in Candidate Races, National and International Politics | Permalink

Comments

Oh no! Dick Morris says it'll be a Demo rout??? THAT makes me nervous. "Things" usually go the opposite of what he declares....

Posted by: bluesky | Nov 7, 2006 7:10:18 AM

Davy Crockett inspired this song and I must share it.... Jack
========================================
Born on a mountain top that you can see
Greenest place in the land of the free.
Raised in the woods so's she knew every tree,
Killed her a bear when she was only three.

Darcy, Darcy Burner WaRep of the 8th District.

Fought single handed through the ’06 war,
Till the Sheriff was whipped and democracy restored.
And while she was handling this risky chore,
Made herself a legend, forevermore.

Darcy, Darcy Burner the mom who knew no fear.

She ran off to Congress and served a spell
Fixin' up the government and laws as well.
Took over Washington, as I heard tell,
And patched up the crack in the Liberty Bell.

Darcy, Darcy Burner, seein' her duty clear.

When she come home, with her politickin' done,
Well the eastern march had just begun.
So she packed her family, and her trusty gun
And let out a grinnin' to follow the sun.

Darcy, Darcy Burner, WaRep of the 8th District.

Posted by: Jack Smith | Nov 8, 2006 8:53:59 AM

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